Pollster and consultant Mike O’Neil of O’Neil Associates is a friend of ours. We liked the following article by Mike–he prepared it especially for the Pennsylvania primary today–enough to print it entirely and word-for-word:
The Rest of the Story: Predicting the Outcome of All of the Remaining Democratic Primaries.
Michael J. O’Neil, Ph.D
“It is difficult to predict, especially the future.”
–Yogi Berra
Last month, I sent out a missive “The Myth of Momentum in the Democratic Primaries” in which I argued that the pattern of Obama and Clinton victories could be explained primarily by the demographics of the various states, rather than by any of the “momentum” that has been widely discussed in the press.